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Diabetes Cases Could Double, Costs Could Triple
Produced by Gabriel Spitzer on Friday, November 27, 2009
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The number of people with diabetes could explode in coming decades, and the cost of treating them could rise even faster. That’s what University of Chicago researchers conclude in a new analysis.
Elbert Huang and his team forecast that diabetes incidence will nearly double in the U.S. by 2034. The costs to society will nearly triple, after adjusting for inflation. Huang says it’s largely a function of aging baby boomers.
HUANG: We are going to be faced with some enormous public health and financial challenges in taking care of this aging population with multiple chronic diseases.
Huang’s projections are much more dire than some past forecasts. Those earlier estimates have fallen way short of the actual growth. So Huang is still being a bit careful.
HUANG: If we are wrong, we are likely underestimating the growth of the population.
Huang says his numbers account for previously ignored factors, like obesity trends, and the complications of aging with the disease. His conclusions are out in the journal, Diabetes Care.
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