We’re down to the wire. I’m not going to pretend to call this thing in its totality, especially because there are appear to be all sorts of last minute variables with GOP shenanigans in Ohio and Florida. But here are my swing state calls, and you can do the math -- let me know what you think!
Things are looking better for the Democrats not just to hold the senate but to actually gain seats since I last checked in on those races in September.
All but one of the Democrats I said were safe then continue to improve their numbers.
But a number of races I thought were sure bets for the GOP have tightened in the last few weeks. Top among these is in Indiana, where the GOP’s Richard Mourdock may have shot himself in the foot with his comments about God and rapists. Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly--only marginally better on choice--leads by ten points in the latest polls.
As most of the country focused on Superstorm Sandy’s assault of the East Coast, Mitt Romney’s campaign hit new shameless lows in Ohio this week.
In spite of promises to lay off politics for a few days while folks were dealing with Hurricane Sandy, this is the loathsome radio ad he’s running in Ohio as of Tuesday:
Barack Obama says he saved the auto industry. But for who? Ohio, or China? Under President Obama, GM cut 15,000 American jobs. But they are planning to double the number of cars built in China — which means 15,000 more jobs for China.
And now comes word that Chrysler plans to start making jeeps in — you guessed it — China. What happened to the promises made to autoworkers in Toledo and throughout Ohio — the same hard-working men and women who were told that Obama’s auto bailout would help them?
Don’t think for a minute that Superstorm Sandy has put the presidential campaign on hold.
Both President Barack Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney’s teams have merely pivoted from overtly political to less so. For both efforts, it’s crucial to look sympathetic and not opportunistic. And for both, the suspension of normal campaigning has serious risks.
For Obama, whose campaign depends on the ground game at this point, suspension of early voting in crucial East Coast states is a huge blow. Maryland suspended early voting completey, and sites in Virginia and North Carolina were forced to close.
He’s also been effectively shut down as a campaigner. Surrogates such as former President Bill Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden are carrying the load, particularly in Ohio.
The whole world now knows that Indiana GOP U.S. Senate candidate Richard Mourdock said he believes “that even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen.”
In other words, God has a plan, and it involves that rapist fathering a kid. Don’t doubt or question it because, damn it all to hell, it’s God’s plan.
Mourdock opposes abortion with a single exception: cases where the life of the mother is at stake.
The kicker? The Democratic candidate, Rep. Joe Donnelly, took a more “moderate” stance, saying that his position allows for abortion in the case of rape, incest or the life of the mother.
That’s a hell of a choice Hoosiers have.
1. Libya
Duh. Mitt Romney’s had two chances to go at President Barack Obama on this issue, where there’s enough haze for him to make some hay, but has blown both. Which means that if there’s one issue, one question, that the Romney debate prep team has been hammering, it’s this one. I know everybody was blown away by Obama’s answer last time, but he missed an opportunity to poke back at Republicans, and particularly at Romney’s VP choice Paul Ryan, all of whom voted against more funding for embassy security, not just in Libya, but all over the world. C’mon.
2. Iran
President Barack Obama lived through the second presidential debates and may have blunted some of Mitt Romney’s momentum in these last few weeks. But a bigger reason to vote for Obama became clearer two days after the clash at Hofstra University, when the 2nd U.S. District Court of Appeals in New York determined that the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, or DOMA, and its definition of marriage as between one man and one woman, is unconstitutional.
The majority opinion in Windsor v. United States was written by Judge Dennis Jacobs, an appointee of President George H.W. Bush. Bush gave us the thewless Clarence Thomas at the Supreme Court to replace the towering Thurgood Marshall, but perhaps more notable in the long run, he also put David Souter on the bench.
What’s at stake for Barack Obama at Tuesday’s debate?
Everything.
Anyone who’s still holding onto the idea that debates don’t matter, that the president’s favorables off the first one were what was important, or that he actually did OK in the long run is just not living in the real world.
Two weeks post-debate is as good a long run as you get to measure effect when you’re less than a month from the election, and the fact is that Mitt Romney not only scored a post-debate bump but actually kickstarted a run.
Which means that any Obama supporter who thinks the president still has it in the bag (if he ever did), is on the brink of delusion right now.
Pre-debate, Obama had an average four-point lead in the national polls and a slight lead in every single one of the battleground states, even North Carolina. Most were within the margin of error, but several had moved beyond it: Ohio (up by six), Pennsylvania (up by six), Florida (up by four).
