WBEZ | Elections

Venezuela's incredibly sad elections

Sun, 14 Apr 2013 05:55:00 -0500

Henrique Capriles’ suicide mission will likely come to an end Sunday, when Venezuelans go to the polls and elect Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s handpicked successor, in a nasty, rigged campaign. If Capriles should somehow win -- an improbability by almost any measure -- it is, frankly, unlikely the Maduro forces don’t have a Plan B to hold on to power, such as an appeal to the Venezuelan Supreme Court -- handpicked by Chávez and a vital player in these last few months in the drama of Chávez’s death, Maduro’s presidential succession and the laying out of the campaign frame work.

The brief 30-day campaign has favored Maduro not simply because of his association with Chávez and because Chávez’s last public words were an endorsement of him as heir -- though this alone is a mighty reason for many Venezuelans to support him.

Maduro’s incumbency, however controversial, has meant the full weight and credit of the Venezuelan government media machine going all out, blacking out Capriles (who’s been reduced to campaigning on one TV station and social media while Maduro campaigns on 7 channels whenever he wants and travels on the government's dime) and constant attacks of the dirtiest kind. So far, Maduro has strongly implied Capriles is gay and outright called him an “heir to Hitler,” a particularly ironic and stinging barb considering Capriles’ grandparents were Holocaust survivors. On the final day, Maduro warned that anyone who didn't vote for him would awaken a 100 year-old curse.

If anything makes the probable defeat of Capriles particularly sad is that his style of campaigning -- trying desperately to combat the irrational insults with reason, trying desperately to remain above the fray and maintain a respectful and dignified stance -- will be deemed futile and Maduro’s mocking no-holds barred denigrating will be declared effective. The campaign has been grueling, depressing, a hate fest.

Sadder perhaps is that Capriles, the only candidate to unite the opposition, will likely end his presidential ambitions with this campaign. At 40, he’s certainly young enough to try again, but he may have spent all his electoral currency in these last two elections (he came within 8 points of Chávez in October, the closest anyone had ever gotten). After this, the next presidential elections are in 2019.

Saddest of all is that Maduro winning won’t modernize the Venezuelan economy, which -- no matter what anyone thinks of the Bolivarian Revolution -- is sputtering (the national currency recently suffered a 32 percent devaluation and inflation is at 26 percent). Nor will Maduro, whose campaign made attacking the U.S. an integral theme, move to open up the economy or to invite in outside investors. (especially the many Venezuelans who’ve taken their investments out of the country).

Venezuela’s annual oil production has declined by 25 percent since 1999, when Chávez took office, and oil exports have dropped by nearly a half in that time. Consider what that means to a country that depends on oil for 95 percent of its exports and 45 percent of its revenues. Consider too that Venezuela depends on the U.S., its sworn enemy, to buy as much as 40 percent of its oil, in cash, in order to stay afloat.

Nor will Maduro make the kinds of structural changes countries such as Brazil, Mexico and Peru have made with an eye toward the long-term. Venezuela's budget deficit reached 12 percent last year, an astounding figure considering its riches. In fact, though Venezuela has one of the largest crude reserves in the world, it still needs to import gasoline (which it sells at a subsidized price of about a nickel a gallon). Does that make sense to anyone?

But Maduro, whose primary goal seems to be to hold on to power, will continue to depend on oil exports to pay for the more than 70 percent of consumer goods Venezuela imports. In other words, Maduro will continue on the road to making Venezuela a one-trick pony with its oil monies, depending entirely on the price and power of oil to pay, first and foremost, for the ever growing domestic subsidies that Venezuela has taken on in the last 14 years.

But his first task -- or that of Capriles, on the very off chance he wins and gets to keep the win -- will be to reconcile the country, now dramatically and bitterly divided. There is a tidal wave of resentment waiting to hit no matter who wins. And there is an economic deluge coming, no matter who the president turns out to be.

The constant candidate: Lar Daly

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 05:00:00 -0600

I learned the meaning of the word “incumbent” when I was 11 years old.

It was the evening of the 1959 mayoral primary. Grandpa was a Democrat precinct captain, and while he was off doing whatever he was doing, the rest of the family listened to the returns over the radio. Every fifteen minutes or so, I’d hear the announcer say something like, “Daley the incumbent, 244,978. Lar Daly, 302.”

So "incumbent" meant our current mayor, Richard J. Daley. But who or what was a Lar Daly?

Lawrence Joseph Sarsfield Daly, that’s who. He was born in 1912, lived on the South Side, was married, and had five children. He operated a business that sold bar stools.

What made him famous was his hobby. He ran for public office–and lost. He did it about 30 times.

Strangely enough, in his first campaign, he actually won. In 1932 Daly was elected a Republican ward committeeman. Then it was discovered he was only 20 years old, and not eligible for the job.

He next ran for Cook County Superintendent of Schools in the 1938 Democrat primary. He began using the name “Lar” because he thought it would win him some Swedish votes. It didn’t work, and his losing streak began.

Daly was an equal-opportunity candidate. He ran on whichever ticket gave him the best shot at victory. In the 1959 mayoral primary, was a candidate in both the Democrat and Republican contests.

In philosophy, he was a Libertarian. He favored legalized gambling, was against public education, and called for major tax cuts. He was also a staunch isolationist–he billed himself as Lar “America First” Daly. Often he campaigned wearing an Uncle Sam suit.

People who knew him well liked him. He played the fiddle and loved to entertain friends at parties. He was also a pretty good public speaker, with a rich, baritone voice.

Still, it was hard to take him seriously. At one outdoor gathering, Daly was dressed in his Uncle Sam costume, telling the audience what was wrong with government. He was running through the list, saying “Point One . . . Point Two . . .”

Then a heckler yelled, “Why don’t you take off that hat, and show us Point Three?”

In a way, Daly was responsible for the Presidential Debates. Federal law said that radio and TV stations had to grant equal time to all candidates. Daly routinely filed appeals when he was denied access–and in 1959, the FCC ruled in his favor! Local Chicago stations were forced to give him free air time.

To make a long story short, Congress soon rewrote the laws in question. When Kennedy and Nixon squared off in their historic 1960 debates, Lar Daly was nowhere to be seen.

So he went on, running and losing. 1962–U.S. Senate . . . 1963–Mayor of Chicago . . . 1964–Governor of Illinois . . . 1966–U.S. Senate . . . 1967–Mayor of Chicago . . . 1969–13th Congressional District special election. And so on, and so on.

In 1973, Daly won the Republican primary for the 7th Congressional District special election. That wasn’t hard to do, since he was running unopposed in a heavily-Democrat district. In the general election, he was clobbered.

Politics costs money, even at Daly’s level. During the 1970s he began appearing without the Uncle Sam suit. Rumor said that he’d had to pawn it.

His last campaign was the Republican U.S. Senate primary in 1978. Running against Charles Percy, Daly polled 74,779 votes–at 15%, his best showing in years in a contested election. A month later, Lar Daly was dead.

Today he remains a legend among local political junkies. A story I heard confirms this.

In 1948, former Minnesota governor Harold Stassen almost became the Republican nominee for President of the United States. That near-miss did something to Stassen. For decades afterward, he ran a string of unsuccessful campaigns, and eventually became a national joke. So when Stassen died, a Chicago commentator was asked to describe him.

The response was classic–Harold Stassen had been “a big-time Lar Daly.”

A stark choice for Egyptians in upcoming elections

Wed, 30 May 2012 12:00:00 -0500

Egyptian voters are bracing for a presidential runoff pitting the former head of the air force, Ahmeh Shafik, against Muslim Brotherhood candidate Ahmed Morsi. Shafik has some voters thinking the revolution is a stake with his candidacy – he was Mubarak’s final prime minister plus he has a military background.

A Morsi presidency would put both parliament and the presidency in the pocket of the Muslim brotherhood – an outcome undesirable to Christians and secularists.

Ahmed Rehab, director of the Chicago Chapter of the Council on American Islamic Relations, joins Worldview to discuss the election.

Greeks vote against austerity measures

Mon, 07 May 2012 15:57:00 -0500

Europe saw a political shake up this weekend when voters went to the polls in France, Serbia and Greece. Greek voters gave a majority to the center-right New Democracy party. But with only about 19 percent of the vote, they did not win enough seats to take control of parliament. They’ve now got three days to try and form a coalition.

The two parties that were part of the previous coalition government suffered a big loss as voters cast their ballots against austerity measures. The vote split among at least seven parties, unseating socialists and conservatives that have dominated Greek politics. Voters delivered a clear message, they want a change. We’ll got some analysis from Endy Zemenides executive director of Hellenic-American Leadership Council.

Wisconsin attorney general will appeal temporary stop of voter ID law

Wed, 07 Mar 2012 19:33:00 -0600

Wisconsin’s attonery general plans to appeal a temporary injunction of that state’s controversial voter ID law which went into effect this year.

“My office will continue its efforts to defend the law, and I am confident that the Voter ID law ultimately will be upheld,” said Wisconsin Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen in a statement.

A Dane County judge ruled on Tuesday that voters would not be required to present a photo identification in order to vote, at least until a lawsuit against the requirement is resolved. The trial in that lawsuit is set to start April 16. If the injunction stands, the photo ID requirement would not be in place for Wisconsin’s presidential primary, which is scheduled for April 3.

Van Hollen also said in that statement his office would move quickly, “to ensure that the Voter ID law will be in full force and in effect before the April elections.”

The judge’s injunction suspends only the photo identification requirement of the law. Other provisions of the law, also known as Act 23, still remain in effect. That act includes the requirement for 28 consecutive days of residency to vote, the requirement for voters to sign the poll list and the end of corroboration for voters who do not have proof of residence.

Worldview 3.5.12

Mon, 05 Mar 2012 16:52:00 -0600

With Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez’s health in decline and the emergence of a popular opposition candidate for fall elections, uncertainty surrounds Chavez’s continued political power. Worldview discusses the fate of Chavista politics with Javier Corrales, author of Dragon in the Tropics: Hugo Chavez and the political economy of revolution in Venezuela. And Russians voted in parliamentary elections Sunday. Results clearly skewed in favor of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Worldview gets post-election analysis from Julia Ioffe, Russia correspondent for The New Yorker and Foreign Policy. Then, with the bulk of seats decided in Iran’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, it appears the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will have outright control of parliament and will eliminate the position of President entirely. Ahmed Sadri, professor of Islamic World Studies and Sociology at Lake Forest College discusses the ramifications.

Putin's win comes amid cries of fraud and streets of Moscow flooded with protesters

Mon, 05 Mar 2012 15:16:00 -0600

Vladimir Putin won another victory in yesterday’s presidential elections in Russia. Putin, who has been either president or prime minister for the past 12 years, was expected to win. Putin's victory comes with widespread allegations of fraud – by international observers and his opponents. And earlier today, thousands of Russians gathered in central Moscow to denounce what they feel was a skewed election.

Journalist Julia Ioffe was there. She’s the Russia correspondent for The New Yorker magazine and Foreign Policy.

Vladimir Putin expected to reassume power in Russia

Tue, 28 Feb 2012 17:12:00 -0600

On Sunday, Russian voters go to the polls to elect a new president in a new environment. During the last few months, Russia has seen its biggest protests since the fall of the Soviet Union. As the election nears, the country has mobilized an unprecedented number of voting monitors. Though Russians are likely to get another Putin presidency, it’s increasingly obvious that many voters are looking for something different.

Stephen F. Cohen, professor emeritus of Russian studies at New York University, discusses the shifts in Russian politics. He’s the author of Failed Crusade: America and the Tragedy of Post-Communist Russia.

2.28.12

Tue, 28 Feb 2012 15:30:00 -0600

The timing of an alleged plot to assassinate Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has raised eyebrows. State television blames Chechen rebels. Many Russians, however, have called the plot a fabrication to garner sympathy for Putin ahead of this weekend’s elections. Stephen Cohen, author of Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, gives his take on the next Putin era and U.S. policy towards Russia. And WBEZ’s Odette Yousef has just returned from a U.S.-Pakistani journalism exchange program organized by the International Center for Journalists. She discusses the state of Pakistani media.

Candidates submit petitions for next year's Cook County elections

Mon, 28 Nov 2011 20:56:00 -0600

Candidates running for Cook County offices on next year's ballot began filing their petitions on Monday.

Three county-wide offices are up for election in 2012, including the State's Attorney and the Circuit Court Clerk

Clerk David Orr said early filings indicate those three races might be less competitive than in previous years, but he says some potential candidates may be waiting to cut down on the time opponents have to contest signatures.

"The law clearly says you can challenge someone's petitions," said Orr. "In Illinois that's become an extremely wild art form, and tens of thousands of dollars trying to knock each other off the ballot."

Candidates have until Dec. 5 to file nomination petitions to run in the March 20 primary. They have to file any objections to those petitions in the next two weeks.