WBEZ | polls http://www.wbez.org/tags/polls Latest from WBEZ Chicago Public Radio en Yes, people are placing bets on politics. Here's how. http://www.wbez.org/news/yes-people-are-placing-bets-politics-heres-how-112985 <img typeof="foaf:Image" src="http://llnw.wbez.org//main-images/2335883022_54f3d623cf_z.jpg" alt="" /><p><p>When Donald Trump attacked Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., early in Wednesday night&#39;s Republican presidential debate, the crowd at Washington D.C.&#39;s Union Pub roared.</p><p>&quot;Yeah! Boom!&quot; yelled one guy in the packed crowd, as Trump said he &quot;never attacked [Paul] on his looks, and believe me, there&#39;s plenty of subject matter right there.&quot;</p><p>One person in the crowd wasn&#39;t so thrilled, though. It&#39;s not because Michael Burleson was backing Paul, but because he had money riding on the situation. Trading on a website called PredictIt, Burleson had wagered that Trump would not be the candidate with the most speaking time.</p><p>Before the debate began, Burleson explained he was strategically zigging where the market zagged.</p><p>&quot;Everyone in the market is favoring that he&#39;s going to speak the most, and I bet against that,&quot; Burleson explained before the debate started. &quot;I feel like I could make some good money.&quot;</p><p>After the Paul exchange, he wasn&#39;t so sure.</p><p>&quot;I feel like this was a bad bet,&quot; Burleson conceded.</p><p>And it was: Trump ended up with the&nbsp;<a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/09/16/440827414/on-the-clock-who-spoke-the-longest">most speaking time</a>.</p><p>But Burleson said the Trump wager aside, he&#39;s been earning money on PredictIt, an increasingly popular site that allows traders to buy and sell shares on political topics.</p><p><strong>Who&#39;s behind this and how does it work exactly?</strong></p><p>The site is run by John Arisotle Phillips, who also heads one of the country&#39;s largest political data gathering-operations. PredictIt has been online for a little less than a year, and allows traders to buy &quot;yes&quot; or &quot;no&quot; shares in specific questions about politics and upcoming elections.</p><p>&quot;It&#39;s a winner-take-all $1 contract, where one person is saying, &#39;Yes this will happen,&#39; and one person is saying, &#39;No, it won&#39;t happen,&#39;&quot; explained Phillips at a PredictIt debate watch party in Washington, D.C. &quot;And we put the &#39;yes&#39; person together with the &#39;no&#39; person, and that&#39;s how we get the market.&quot;</p><p>The value of the yes or no options rise and fall depending on supply and depend, just like in any other stock market. PredictIt offers all sorts of questions:</p><ul><li>Who will win the Iowa caucuses? (Bernie Sanders is trading ahead of Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side.)</li><li>Will the government shut down on October 1? (&#39;No&#39; was trading at 67 cents a share there as of Thursday afternoon.)</li></ul><p>Traders can buy or dump stock at any point, though PredictIt takes a cut of profits.</p><p><strong>How is this legal?</strong></p><p>If this sounds familiar, that&#39;s because another site, Intrade, offered similar markets &mdash;<a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewrice/the-fall-of-intrade-and-the-business-of-betting-on-real-life#.ky9madZqR">until it shut down</a>&nbsp;after U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit.</p><p>Phillips, though, asked for, and received, permission to operate from the commission. Among the restrictions imposed by the agreement: $850 limits on trades. The site is technically an educational project, as Aristotle&#39;s company is partnering with a New Zealand university to run the site. Phillips said data is being made available to other schools, as well.</p><div class="bucketwrap statichtml" id="res441302018" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 27px; padding: 0px 15px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18.6667px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline; position: relative; float: none; width: auto; clear: left; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><div id="responsive-embed-debate-betting-20150915" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; text-align: center;"><p data-pym-src="http://apps.npr.org/dailygraphics/graphics/debate-betting-20150915/child.html">&nbsp;</p><script src="http://apps.npr.org/dailygraphics/graphics/debate-betting-20150915/js/lib/pym.js" type="text/javascript"></script></div></div><div class="listenicon" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; position: absolute; z-index: 1; top: 11px; left: 10px;">&nbsp;</div><h3><strong>Who was the best bet in Wednesday&#39;s debate?</strong></h3><p>During the debate Wednesday night, traders were offered a chance to buy shares in the candidate they thought would get the best polling bounce from the debate. As the three-hour-plus forum went on, one candidate stood out from the pack: Carly Fiorina.</p><p>Based partially on her performance in the August &quot;JV&quot; debate, Fiorina stock was selling higher than any other candidate before the debate began. About an hour into the forum, right after her answers about Iran and Planned Parenthood and her exchange with Trump about his recent critique of her &#39;face,&#39; Fiorina&#39;s stock began to rapidly climb.</p><p>That was good news for Christopher Knight, a PredictIt trader attending the site&#39;s watch party, who bought Fiorinia shares before the event began.</p><p>Knight has only been using the site for a week, but he&#39;s already knee-deep in trades.</p><p>&quot;I have some shares on Bernie [Sanders],&quot; he said. &quot;Even if he doesn&#39;t win, I think his support is going to continue to increase for awhile. I&#39;ve got some money on the government shutdown. You name it, I&#39;m well diversified.&quot;</p><p><strong>Are people really making money off this?</strong></p><p>Daniel Kaseff is another well-diversified trader. He has one of PredictIt&#39;s highest returns-on-investment, and pocketed more than $1,200 in earnings on his way to the site&#39;s August debate-viewing party, because he noticed a new poll had changed the dynamics of a question about President Barack Obama&#39;s approval rating.</p><p>He said the site initially caught his eye because he was interested in both politics and economics.</p><p>&quot;And then you get into it,&quot; Kaseff said, &quot;and you think, OK, I can actually make some money on this.&quot;</p><p>He initially dropped $20 into the site, and trade after trade after trade, saw that grow to more than $5,000.</p><p>But here&#39;s the thing about Kaseff: he almost didn&#39;t get into Wednesday&#39;s debate party, because he&#39;s not old enough to drink.</p><p>The 19-year-old George Washington University sophomore was sipping a cup of water as he discussed his earnings, his strategies, and his future plans.</p><p>&quot;I don&#39;t really know,&quot; when asked what he hoped to do post-graduation, &quot;probably something related to politics. That&#39;s my major, and it&#39;s working out for me so far.&quot;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&mdash; <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/09/18/441293531/yes-people-are-placing-bets-on-politics-heres-how?ft=nprml&amp;f=441293531" target="_blank"><em>via NPR&#39;s </em></a><em><a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/09/18/441293531/yes-people-are-placing-bets-on-politics-heres-how?ft=nprml&amp;f=441293531" target="_blank">It&#39;s</a></em><a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/09/18/441293531/yes-people-are-placing-bets-on-politics-heres-how?ft=nprml&amp;f=441293531" target="_blank"><em> All Politics</em></a></p></p> Fri, 18 Sep 2015 12:37:00 -0500 http://www.wbez.org/news/yes-people-are-placing-bets-politics-heres-how-112985 Debate damage: Romney ties or leads in new polls http://www.wbez.org/blogs/achy-obejas/2012-10/debate-damage-romney-ties-or-leads-new-polls-102991 <p><div class="image-insert-image "><img alt="" class="image-original_image" src="http://llnw.wbez.org/styles/original_image/llo/insert-images/RS6370_RomneyObamaDebates.jpg" style="height: 299px; width: 620px; " title="Some post-debate polls shows Romney gaining ground. (AP)" /></div><p>In at least one poll released Monday, five days after last week&rsquo;s presidential debates, GOP nominee Mitt Romney is beating President Barack Obama by four points.<br /><br />So, please, Obama supporters, tell me again about how it was all a trap to set Romney up for future failure, about how the president spoke directly to the people, how voters saw through Romney&rsquo;s lies, how the post-debate fact checking destroyed the Republican&rsquo;s seeming advantage.<br /><br />In the days after <a href="http://www.wbez.org/blogs/achy-obejas/2012-10/romney-won-get-over-it-obama-fans-102898">my post-debate story</a>, it seemed that was all I heard about. My assertion that Romney won and that there would be consequences to that victory didn&rsquo;t go over all that well.<br /><br />But here&rsquo;s exactly what I sad:<br /><br />&ldquo;Obama supporters can console themselves all day long by saying debates don&rsquo;t matter, that history proves that. They can also tell themselves that first debates usually help the challenger.<br /><br />&ldquo;But here&rsquo;s what history also tells us: Debates provide a bump of anywhere between 1 and 3 percentage points in the poll.<br /><br />&ldquo;And in a race divided by just about 4 points, that means Romney &mdash; and there does seem to be agreement both among pundits and early polls that he won this one &mdash; can pull himself up to within the margin of error nationally and quite likely lead in states such as North Carolina (where the president had forged ahead by a fraction), Colorado, Florida, and maybe even Iowa and Virginia.&rdquo;<br /><br />And here&rsquo;s where we are today: A number of <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/08/after-conventions-follow-the-bouncing-poll-numbers/">polls came out Monday</a> that show a tightening of the presidential race. Nearly all show a Romney surge. The Pew Research Center, which has usually shown a lean toward Obama, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/08/mitt-romney-polls-manic-monday_n_1949446.html">put Romney four full points up</a>.<br /><br />In other words, Romney&rsquo;s performance &mdash; whatever we might think of its substance&nbsp;&mdash;&nbsp;potentially garnered him considerably more than a mere historical bump. If you believe the Pew poll, Romney&rsquo;s rocketing.<br /><br />To make matters worse, <em>Politico</em>/George Washington University&rsquo;s Battleground Tracking Poll showed <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82122.html">Romney up by one point</a> in a statistical tie, and a growing enthusiasm gap, with the Democrats down.<br /><br />And in the states I mentioned last week? According to <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/"><em>RealClearPolitics</em>&#39; poll aggregator</a>, Romney now leads by a fraction of a point in North Carolina (where Obama was pre-debate). It&rsquo;s a dead heat in Colorado (where Obama actually went up two points) and Florida (where Obama dropped a few points). Iowa and Virginia remain more or less unchanged, with the president barely leading in statistical ties.<br /><br />Lastly, on Intrade, Obama&rsquo;s chances of winning have dropped two points to 64.4 from the morning after the debate. That&rsquo;s a slow drip, but it&rsquo;s still downward motion.<br /><br />Keep in mind that pre-debate, Obama was ahead and moving in these states (and on Intrade). And consider how much worse these numbers might look if the president&rsquo;s performance hadn&rsquo;t been blunted by the jobs report last Friday, which showed unemployment at 7.8 &mdash; the first time under eight percent in the entire Obama presidency.<br /><br />Believe me, I&rsquo;d like Obama to win this race, but merely wanting it won&rsquo;t make it so. The president did real honest to God damage, perhaps the worst so far to this campaign, with his performance &nbsp;&mdash; or lack thereof &nbsp;&mdash; last week.<br /><br />No, Romney won&rsquo;t repeat <em>his</em> performance style again, but Obama simply <em>can&rsquo;t repeat </em>his either. Not if he actually intends to win a second term.</p></p> Tue, 09 Oct 2012 05:00:00 -0500 http://www.wbez.org/blogs/achy-obejas/2012-10/debate-damage-romney-ties-or-leads-new-polls-102991 Polls will stay open late in seven suburban Cook County precincts http://www.wbez.org/story/cook-county/polls-will-stay-open-late-seven-suburban-cook-county-precincts <p><p>In a written release, Cook County Clerk David Orr said a judge has ordered seven precincts in suburban Cook County to stay open for voting until 8 p.m. tonight due to opening late.&nbsp;Voters registered in these precincts are permitted to vote&nbsp;up to one hour after the statewide poll-closing time of 7 p.m. All voters in line by the 8 p.m. deadline will be allowed to cast a ballot in the following precincts.</p><p><strong>Niles</strong><strong> 29</strong><br /> LINCOLNWOOD PLACE<br /> 7000 McCormick<br /> Lincolnwood, IL 60045</p> <div><strong>Northfield</strong><strong> 25</strong><br /> ST CATHERINE LA BOURE SCHOOL<br /> 3425 Thornwood Lane<br /> Glenview IL 60025</div> <div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">&nbsp;</div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong>Northfield</strong><strong> 66</strong><br /> COLE PARK<br /> 1031 Kenilworth<br /> Glenview, IL 60025</div> <div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">&nbsp;</div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong>Northfield</strong><strong> 67</strong><br /> COVENANT VILLAGE<br /> 2625 Techny Road<br /> Northbrook, IL 60062</div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">&nbsp;</div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong>Proviso 46</strong><br /> MC CLURE JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL<br /> 4225 Wolf Road<br /> Western Springs, IL 60558&nbsp;</div> <div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">&nbsp;</div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong>Proviso 53</strong><br /> WASHINGTON SCHOOL<br /> 1111 Washington Blvd<br /> Maywood, IL 60153</div> <div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">&nbsp;</div> <div><strong>Proviso 95</strong><br /> VICTORY CENTRE<br /> 1800 Riverwoods Drive<br /> Melrose Park, IL 60160</div></p> Tue, 02 Nov 2010 22:35:00 -0500 http://www.wbez.org/story/cook-county/polls-will-stay-open-late-seven-suburban-cook-county-precincts