WBEZ | 2014 election http://www.wbez.org/tags/2014-election Latest from WBEZ Chicago Public Radio en Illinois voters get change with Rauner victory, but political fights ahead http://www.wbez.org/news/illinois-voters-get-change-rauner-victory-political-fights-ahead-111065 <img typeof="foaf:Image" src="http://llnw.wbez.org/main-images/rauner-celebration-3.png" alt="" /><p><p><em>Update: <a href="http://www.wbez.org/news/rauner-declares-victory-race-illinois-governor-quinn-says-more-votes-still-need-be-counted" target="_blank">Democrat Pat Quinn conceded the election for Illinois Governor Monday afternoon</a>. </em></p><p>For more than a year, Illinois voters have been absolutely bombarded with talk of just how bad things are in the state. From financial chaos to mismanagement to uncertainty over billions in unpaid retirement bills, those lines were repeated over and over.</p><p>Gov. Pat Quinn kept insisting the state is making a comeback under his leadership. Bruce Rauner said he&rsquo;d bring change to a backwards political culture and rescue the bottom line, but he rarely gave details of how he&rsquo;d &ldquo;bring back Illinois.&rdquo;</p><p>In the end, though, voters went with Rauner and promise of change. The Republican&rsquo;s victory speech sounded a lot like his stump speeches: Talk of better schools for all, term limits for lawmakers and a better day for working people.</p><p>&ldquo;The voters have asked for divided government for the first time in many years,&rdquo; Rauner told supporters last night, hinting at the political fights ahead. &ldquo;We&rsquo;ll have a Republican governor and a Democratic legislature.&rdquo;</p><blockquote><p><a href="http://www.wbez.org/news/rauner-declares-victory-race-illinois-governor-quinn-says-more-votes-still-need-be-counted"><strong>Rauner declares victory in race for Illinois Governor</strong></a></p></blockquote><p>You can hear both Rauner and the Republican crowd try to make sense of how the next few years might work. They applaud bipartisanship. But boo the Democrats they&rsquo;ll have to work with.</p><p>&ldquo;I called Speaker Madigan,&rdquo; Rauner said over jeers from the crowd. &ldquo;I called President Cullerton. And I said to them, &lsquo;This is an opportunity for us to work together.&rsquo;&rdquo;</p><p>Rauner said he wants to change the structure of state government and make a &ldquo;booming economy.&rdquo; He said that way, the state can be more compassionate for its neediest citizens.</p><p>He used the word &ldquo;compassionate&rdquo; several times Tuesday night, although he had not used it much at all during the campaign. Rauner wants to be &ldquo;compassionate&rdquo; through tax cuts, which has many Democrats worried about how he&rsquo;ll pay for his plans.</p><p>For those listening to Rauner at his election night party, their support didn&rsquo;t necessarily come from one particular conviction, but from a wide-ranging interest in a different way of doing things.</p><p>&ldquo;I&rsquo;m not here for politics. I&rsquo;m not here for social issues. I&rsquo;m here because Bruce absolutely needs to change the way we do business in Illinois,&rdquo; said Michael Lapidus, who was vocal about his frustrations with his own party.</p><p>Lapidus said the Republican Party can&rsquo;t seem to find its focus in spite of its big victories across the country Tuesday.</p><p>&ldquo;Sometimes the Republican Party gets so bogged down in these right wing, one-issue platforms and that&rsquo;s not who we are,&rdquo; he said.</p><p>But this whole portrayal of Bruce Rauner&rsquo;s vision for Illinois - his policies that are seen as pro-business - they&rsquo;re precisely what worry John Unwin from north suburban Skokie, who attended Pat Quinn&rsquo;s election night party. Unwin says he struggles with the phrase, &ldquo;running government like a business.&rdquo;</p><p>&ldquo;Illinois is a complicated state. It&rsquo;s post-industrial and it has a lot of social problems. We need someone who can start developing it from the bottom-up. Not from the top-down,&rdquo; Unwin said.</p><p>And this gets into why so many Democrats aren&rsquo;t buying what Rauner is selling. It plays into what Pat Quinn tried to tap into in his TV ads, portraying Rauner as a selfish millionaire who would hurt everyone else just to help himself. Unwin even attacked Rauner on the candidate&rsquo;s strong suit.</p><p>&ldquo;If I had to trust somebody with my wallet, I would trust it with Pat Quinn over Rauner,&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;I&rsquo;m not casting aspersions, but for me, I feel more comfortable with Pat Quinn.&rdquo;</p><p>Gov. Quinn made only brief remarks to his supporters in saying he wasn&rsquo;t conceding. He said he&rsquo;s been in close races before and all the votes needed to be counted before he&rsquo;d give up. But the vote gap will be hard to close. At the end of the night, some of Quinn&rsquo;s supporters said they were drained and that the anger and frustrations of the loss will come when the morning hits.</p><p>Until that anger comes, they&rsquo;ll likely still be trying to figure out what Bruce Rauner will do with the power of the governor.</p><p><em>Tony Arnold covers Illinois politics for WBEZ. Follow him </em><a href="https://twitter.com/tonyjarnold"><em>@tonyjarnold</em></a><em>.</em></p></p> Wed, 05 Nov 2014 08:48:00 -0600 http://www.wbez.org/news/illinois-voters-get-change-rauner-victory-political-fights-ahead-111065 Turn out for what? Will young voters make it to the polls, or stay home as usual? http://www.wbez.org/news/turn-out-what-will-young-voters-make-it-polls-or-stay-home-usual-111025 <img typeof="foaf:Image" src="http://llnw.wbez.org/main-images/Young Voters.jpg" alt="" /><p><p dir="ltr" id="docs-internal-guid-66e03813-6290-1714-88ec-30ef0d92b54b">Cycle after cycle, voter turnout among young people trends especially low. For example, in the <a href="http://www.civicyouth.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/The-CPS-youth-vote-2010-FS-FINAL1.pdf" target="_blank">last midterm election</a>, fewer than a quarter of eligible 18 to 29 year olds cast ballots.</p><p>OK, so we are talking about the generation that invented the selfie. But young people do care about more than just themselves; but, they say, no one ever asks for their input.</p><p>Eve Rips is the Midwest Director of the <a href="http://younginvincibles.org/" target="_blank">Young Invincibles</a>. The national organization works to engage young adults on issues like higher education, healthcare and employment. And it made a point of asking young people for their thoughts.</p><p>&ldquo;We heard a lot about skyrocketing tuition, about violence on the streets, we heard time and again from young adults whose peers had been exposed to violence and significant trauma. We heard constantly about high rates of youth unemployment. We heard from people scared about not living up to their parents standard of living,&rdquo; Rips explained. &nbsp;</p><p>And young people in Illinois, it turns out, are very happy to talk the talk&hellip;they tend not to walk the walk. A <a href="http://documents.mccormickfoundation.org/pdf/2012_Illinois_Civic_Health_Index.pdf" target="_blank">study on civic health</a> from the McCormick Foundation found that while a quarter of Illinois Millennials engage in weekly political discussions, they were at the the bottom of the pack when it came to voting regularly. Like, three from the bottom.</p><p>Democratic political consultant Tom Bowen said sometimes low turnout is a measure of the issues that are out there; certain groups are highly attuned to the issues that a candidate can appeal to.</p><p>&ldquo;There&rsquo;s not very many not very many messages about Medicare and Social Security that are going to entice young voters into the electorate,&rdquo; Bowen explained.</p><p>It&rsquo;s easy to see how it might be a struggle to make those particular issues sexy. Young people tend not to think about their retirement or long-term health until it&rsquo;s staring them right in the face.</p><p>&ldquo;Most of the time what brings young voters into the electorate is they become parents and they care about schools. Schools are a pretty motivating local issue that tends to get people to pay attention to what their government is doing,&rdquo; said Bowen.</p><p>Campaigns are faced with limited time and resources -- and they have to focus on the folks they know are going to be there.</p><p>And, if we&rsquo;re honest with ourselves, young people -- Millennials like this reporter -- we&rsquo;re lazy. That&rsquo;s right, the most educated generation in history is sitting at home, avoiding joining the workforce because -- we&rsquo;re entitled narcissists. Or, at least that&rsquo;s the stereotype.</p><p>It&rsquo;s the same old song. But maybe if you could get <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rijpU5yD55I" target="_blank">Lil Jon</a> to sing it, while applying some good, old-fashioned peer pressure...junior would get off the couch.</p><p>According to political psychologist Jon Krosnick, social pressure is a very effective tool in elections. He said voter turnout is contagious.</p><p>&ldquo;At one level, participating in an election might seem like an irrational act -- because any one individual is certainly not likely to have any meaningful impact on the outcome of any election. But, in fact, each person&rsquo;s action can be magnified,&rdquo; Krosnick explained.</p><p>By voting -- and letting others know that you voted -- you actually increase the likelihood that other people will vote.</p><p>But pollster <a href="http://weaskamerica.com/" target="_blank">Gregg Durham</a> said the easier, surer thing &hellip; is to make a play for mom. &nbsp;</p><p>Durham said suburban women tipped the dead-even scales for Governor Pat Quinn four years ago when they failed to turn out for Bill Brady. And this year&rsquo;s governor&rsquo;s race is just as tight.</p><p>&ldquo;There&rsquo;s no group that they say don&rsquo;t worry about them, we can&rsquo;t get enough of them. If you have the wherewithal you go after every vote you can. However, you go after the low-hanging fruit first...and the young voter is a tough harvest,&rdquo; Durham explained.</p><p>According to Durham, if just three more people had voted in each precinct in 2010, Illinois would probably be talking about Brady&rsquo;s re-election.</p><p>Every vote really does count. And there are young people out there, trying to get their peers to the polls. People like Connie C. Luo, a field organizer with <a href="http://chicagovotes.com/" target="_blank">Chicago Votes</a>.</p><p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s something like an intervention to the cycle of oppression, to the cycle of apathy, that systemically has prevented young people from raising their voice. And so, the best way to do that is to direct one-on-one intervention, by being out in the field, by targeting people who need to register, who need to vote the most...that way we can move forward,&rdquo; Luo said.</p><p>Chicago Votes has registered over 15,000 young people with its get-out-the-vote campaign this year, bringing their coalition&rsquo;s total to over 115,000. Parades to the polls have been planned to make sure that those registered actually make it to the polls on Tuesday.</p><p>If they do, it will definitely matter. It may even shape the future.</p></p> Thu, 30 Oct 2014 14:35:00 -0500 http://www.wbez.org/news/turn-out-what-will-young-voters-make-it-polls-or-stay-home-usual-111025 Compare: Illinois governor candidates' views on concealed carry http://www.wbez.org/series/curious-city/compare-illinois-governor-candidates-views-concealed-carry-109845 <p><p><em>Editor&rsquo;s note: This episode of the Curious City podcast includes a story about what the candidates for Illinois governor think about the state&rsquo;s new concealed-carry law. It starts 6 minutes, 30 seconds into the program. (Subscribe via <a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/curious-city/id568409161">iTunes </a>or <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/CuriousCityPodcast">Feedburner</a>!) This topic was also <a href="https://soundcloud.com/afternoonshiftwbez/curious-city-gay-marriage-and" target="_blank">discussed on WBEZ&#39;s The Afternoon Shift</a>.&nbsp;</em></p><p>Cheryl Brumbaugh-Cayford of Elgin, Ill., had a perception about guns and violence that made her curious about the crop of primary candidates vying to be the state&rsquo;s governor. Her suspicion? The more that people carry guns in public, the higher the likelihood of gun violence.</p><p>With this highly-debated viewpoint in hand, she sent Curious City this question, just in time for the March 18 primary:</p><p style="text-align: center;"><em>What would the candidates for Illinois governor do to prevent gun violence once thousands of residents are granted concealed carry permits?</em></p><p>There&rsquo;s a lot to unpack here, including some basic information about the state&rsquo;s concealed carry law.</p><p>First, Illinois was the last state in the country to adopt concealed carry and, even then, the lawmakers didn&rsquo;t act on their own; they were forced to pass a bill &mdash; any bill &mdash; by a federal judge who had ruled it&rsquo;s unconstitutional to not allow people to carry concealed guns in public. The legislature approved such a bill in May 2013.</p><p>The timing&rsquo;s not lost on Cheryl, who tells us she once appreciated that Illinois had not allowed concealed carry, and she feels the policy was foisted on the state.</p><p>But now, she said, &ldquo;The way our elected officials respond is going to be crucial.&rdquo;</p><p>Cheryl&rsquo;s onto something here. The first few thousand applicants have just begun receiving their concealed carry permits from the Illinois State Police. That means that &mdash; between the primary and November&rsquo;s general election &mdash; state residents will have a better idea of what living in a state with concealed carry really feels like.</p><p>And there may be pressure, one way or another, to rework the policy.</p><p>So how would the candidates respond?</p><p>To the best of our ability, we let the<a href="#views"> candidates themselves speak to this</a>. But since several of them cite studies about the relationship between violence, crime and concealed carry policy, we also compared their statements to what&rsquo;s being said about concealed carry by academics. While answering Cheryl&#39;s question, we found the bottom line is that the lack of consensus among the candidates is pretty much reflected by a lack of consensus in the research.</p><p><strong>Good guy gun ownership, bad guy gun ownership</strong></p><p>So what effect do concealed carry laws have on violence? It&rsquo;s important to tease out because politicians often cite research to back their positions. And &mdash; as you&rsquo;ll read and hear below &mdash; the academic findings run the gamut..</p><p>(A clarification: Cheryl asked about positions related to concealed carry and violence. Researchers we reached out to look at violent crime, but other types of crime, as well.)</p><p><img alt="" class="image-original_image" src="http://www.wbez.org/system/files/styles/original_image/llo/insert-images/Tio%20H%20from%20campaign.jpg" style="margin: 5px; height: 190px; width: 285px; float: right;" title="Tio Hardiman is challenging Governor Quinn in the Democratic Primary. (Photo courtesy of the Tio Hardiman campaign)" /><a href="http://www.press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/493636.html" target="_blank">John Lott</a> has studied the effects of concealed carry laws on crime rates. He wrote a book called More Guns, Less Crime, which pretty much sums up where he stands.</p><p>&ldquo;The fact that a would-be victim might be able to defend themselves also deters crime,&rdquo; Lott said in a phone interview with WBEZ.</p><p>Lott&rsquo;s research of municipal crime data from across the country suggests crime drops after concealed carry laws take effect, and the more concealed carry permits that are issued, the more it drops.</p><p>&ldquo;You know, all sorts of claims about &lsquo;Bad things are gonna happen, you know, blood in the streets?&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;A year from now, everybody&rsquo;s gonna say, &lsquo;What was this debate all about?&rsquo;&rdquo;</p><p>That&rsquo;s particularly true for Illinois, Lott said, because strict requirements on obtaining a concealed carry permit may limit the number of people who get them.</p><p>But here&rsquo;s where things get a little complex, if not outright confusing.</p><p><a href="http://www.law.stanford.edu/profile/john-j-donohue-iii" target="_blank">John Donohue</a>, a professor at Stanford, has also studied the effects of concealed carry laws on crime rates, and his research suggests the exact opposite of what Lott found.</p><p>&ldquo;If I had to bet my house, I&rsquo;d say more likely that they have adverse impacts than that they have a beneficial impact,&rdquo; Donohue said, adding the caveat that the current available research models aren&rsquo;t perfect.</p><p>Still, Donohue said he&rsquo;s doing preliminary work with a new research model that suggests right-to-carry laws lead to more aggravated assaults.<img alt="" class="image-original_image" src="http://www.wbez.org/system/files/styles/original_image/llo/insert-images/4655925819_1f5bc72c99_o.jpg" style="margin: 5px; float: left; height: 183px; width: 275px;" title="Incumbent Pat Quinn advocates for firmer restrictions on concealed carry. (Flickr/Chris Eaves)" /></p><p>And then there&rsquo;s a third position held by other researchers about what happens to crime rates in right-to-carry states, as expressed by Prof. <a href="http://www.criminology.fsu.edu/p/faculty-gary-kleck.php" target="_blank">Gary Kleck</a> from Florida State University.</p><p>&ldquo;Other things being equal, nothing happens,&rdquo; Kleck said. &ldquo;Good guy gun ownership has crime-reducing effects and bad guy gun ownership has crime-elevating effects.&rdquo;</p><p>The reason there are so many contradictory opinions is that none of these folks can agree on what data they should be looking at or how they should be looking at it. Kleck said this gets into differences over the minutiae of crime research models.</p><p>&ldquo;There may be only one right way to do it, but there&rsquo;s like a million different wrong ways to do it. And yeah, if you&rsquo;re a layperson, you&rsquo;re just &lsquo;Joe Regular Guy&rsquo; trying to figure it out, you&rsquo;re doomed,&rdquo; Kleck said. &ldquo;I mean, there&rsquo;s nothing I can say to help you out because you&rsquo;re not gonna be qualified to see those ... flaws in the research.&rdquo;</p><div class="image-insert-image " style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" class="image-original_image" src="http://www.wbez.org/system/files/styles/original_image/llo/insert-images/AP463233027879.jpg" style="margin: 5px; height: 303px; width: 450px;" title="The GOP candidates, from left to right, state Sen. Bill Brady, state Treasurer Dan Rutherford, state Sen. Kirk Dillard, and businessman Bruce Rauner prepare to debate. (AP Photo/Chicago Tribune, Terrence Antonio James, Pool)" /></div><p><strong>Where the candidates stand</strong></p><p>All this is to show that concealed carry is a complicated, controversial issue. But we wanted to illustrate that even among the experts &mdash; the folks whom politicians are citing &mdash; there&rsquo;s not a consensus.</p><p>We posed Cheryl&rsquo;s question to all six major party campaigns, but we had to track down responses in very different ways. In three cases we were able to ask candidates directly, either at press conferences or via phone calls. For the others, we had to search for answers through other avenues. In some cases, we extrapolated a position based on the candidate&rsquo;s previous statements on concealed carry, crime, violence and guns.</p><p><strong>Democrat Tio Hardiman</strong></p><p>He is the only candidate who acknowledged the conflicting research that we encountered.</p><p>&ldquo;I cannot penalize, not with a good conscience, penalize legal gun owners for the violence problem in Illinois. There&rsquo;s no data to back it up. So if people would like to exercise their right to the Second Amendment, they should be able to do so.&rdquo;</p><p><strong>Republican State Sen. Bill Brady</strong></p><p>&ldquo;We also have to understand that this is about public safety and driving down crime. We know that in every state where concealed carry took place, crime went down. And we need to give our citizens the opportunity to protect themselves and watch crime go down.&rdquo;</p><p><strong>Republican State Sen. Kirk Dillard</strong></p><p>&ldquo;Illinois is the last state in America to allow people to protect themselves. It took the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals to force the state of Illinois to allow people to have the same right they had in all 49 other states, let alone keep the criminals guessing. I take a wait and see approach. I think we ought to wait and see how this law unfurls for a while before we make any changes, pro or con, to it.&rdquo;</p><p><strong>Republican businessman Bruce Rauner</strong></p><p>We didn&rsquo;t get a direct response from Bruce Rauner, but he addressed themes in Cheryl&rsquo;s question during a debate.</p><p>&ldquo;I think concealed carry was long overdue. Gun ownership is an important constitutional right. We should end the approach that many politicians take in Illinois and that is to blame our crime problems on gun ownership. Our crime problems are one of, crimes about inadequate police staffing, high unemployment and horrible schools, not about gun ownership.&rdquo;</p><p><strong>Republican State Treasurer Dan Rutherford</strong></p><p>In previous statements, including this one from a debate in northwest suburban Hoffman Estates, he&rsquo;s said he wants the Illinois State Police to oversee gun licenses efficiently.</p><p>&ldquo;If I was king of the forest or if I was the governor and I was able to help influence it, it would be a different bill than what it was. I think what we need to be very, very sensitive to, though, is the evolution of this. The evolution could be, as you suggested, perhaps making it better and more enhancing. But as well an evolution could also put us backwards if we don&rsquo;t have the right people in the governor&rsquo;s office, we don&rsquo;t have the right people in the General Assembly. One of the performance reviews that I will be doing is with regards to State Police. Why does it take so long to process a FOID card? Why does it take so long to process the application for your concealed carry? Those are unacceptable.&rdquo;</p><p><strong>Democratic incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn</strong></p><p>The governor didn&rsquo;t seem to like any part of the process of negotiating the concealed carry bill last year, and he <a href="http://www3.illinois.gov/PressReleases/ShowPressRelease.cfm?SubjectID=2&amp;RecNum=11323" target="_blank">vetoed parts of it </a>in the name of safety. Those changes were overridden by the General Assembly.</p><p>&ldquo;This is about public safety. I think that public safety should never be compromised, never be negotiated away. The governor, that&rsquo;s me, my job is to protect public safety and I think that&rsquo;s what I&rsquo;m doing here with these common sense changes. I think we need to repeat that over and over again. The things I&rsquo;ve outlined today that have changed this bill are all about common sense and public safety and I think the General Assembly and the members should put aside politics and focus on people and their safety.&rdquo;<a name="views"></a></p><p><iframe frameborder="0" height="400" scrolling="no" src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A//api.soundcloud.com/playlists/26501739&amp;color=ff5500&amp;auto_play=false&amp;hide_related=false&amp;show_artwork=true" width="100%"></iframe></p><p><em>Tony Arnold covers Illinois politics for WBEZ. Follow him <a href="http://twitter.com/tonyjarnold">@tonyjarnold</a>.&nbsp;<a href="http://www.wbez.org/users/akeefe">Alex Keefe</a> is a political reporter at WBEZ. You can follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/WBEZpolitics">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://plus.google.com/102759794640397640028">Google+</a>.</em></p><p><em>This report received additional support through <a href="http://www.wbez.org/series/front-center">Front &amp; Center</a>, an occasional WBEZ series funded by The Joyce Foundation.</em></p></p> Wed, 12 Mar 2014 19:02:00 -0500 http://www.wbez.org/series/curious-city/compare-illinois-governor-candidates-views-concealed-carry-109845