Big retailers have followed Amazon’s lead in making free shipping a staple. But that leaves small businesses in the uncomfortable position of managing expectations or just eating the cost of two-day air themselves. But first: Wages are up, inflation is down and consumer spending is on the rise again. That’s all good, right? Well, maybe. We’ll walk through some of the warning signs of downturn to look out for. Plus: A look back in trade history, when Japan had a turbulent relationship with the U.S.