Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn is spending his final day before Tuesday’s midterm election wooing voters around the state, but one political analyst says his time may be better spent energizing Democrats in Chicago.

Quinn set off in a twin-engine plane from Midway Airport Monday morning joined by his running mate, Shelia Simon, and the leader of the AFL-CIO, which is supporting Quinn’s bid for governor.

The governor sounded a bit hoarse when reporters asked him if he was concerned that a new poll from Public Policy Polling showed him five points behind Republican State Sen. Bill Brady - and 18 points behind with independent voters.

“You know, you’ve gotta be careful with these last-minute polls,” Quinn said. “I’ve seen three or four polls that’ve had us ahead.  But what counts is tomorrow.”

But Chicago-based political analyst Thom Serafin says downstate voters are already polling for Quinn’s opponent, so the governor should be spending his time in the city.

“[Quinn] needs to get the vote out here in the city,” Serafin said. “He needs to come out of here with 350,000 [votes]. He needs to get a good piece of the pie right up here.”

Serafin says a big turnout Tuesday could be good for Quinn, but the race could go to Brady if voters stay home.