Mary Dixon: It's been one year since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The war has killed more than eight thousand Ukrainian civilians and displaced millions. For the Russian people, the past year has brought international sanctions, flight restrictions and international sports bans. Konstantin Sonin is a Russian citizen and a professor of economics at the University of Chicago. He joins us now to reflect on what might lie ahead for the Russian people. Good morning Professor Sonin.

Konstantin Sonin: Hello.

Mary Dixon: I understand that you were in Moscow when the Russians invasion of Ukraine began. Can you tell tell us what those first days were like? How were people in Russia responding to what was happening?

Konstantin Sonin: The response was overwhelming shocked. A lot of people, like the day they were started people were crying. You could see people crying in the underground. Some people were trying to buy tickets immediately. I initially thought that we should stay because I thought that we could speak against the war. But in ten days it was like all the radio shows that would take me on all the newspapers that would publish my column, they were closed. So I decided to go back to Chicago.

Mary Dixon: And this of course is contradictory to what we've been seeing in Russian State media. Are you seeing the same support for the war on the ground as what they are reporting now?

Konstantin Sonin: No, I do not think that there is much support of the war. I mean like the least estimates of the number of people who left Russia over the years is 500 thousand. And it might be up to a million people left Russia. This means that a lot of people are extremely unhappy. I mean, having this number of refugees from a country that does not have any kind of acute war on its territory is actually astonishing. My friends that still traveled to Russia that are not involved in any kind of political or public activities, so they think that this is safe to travel, and who are of appropriate age, so they do not fear to be drafted - they say that the general mood in Moscow and St. Petersburg is extremely depressed, that people are very visibly unhappy about the war,

Mary Dixon: Do you see a difference in how did generations are responding to the war? For example, the kids who were growing up after the fall of the Soviet Union. How are they responding? 

Konstantin Sonin: Oh, I think the response is very different across generations. I think that even state extended sociological polls, they show that younger generations do not support the war. So even the data that is published by state media does not show support among people, most of young people are against the war. The same thing about media or music stars, basically among the younger generation, like no major star has supported the war. A lot of them spoke against the war. So I think there is a huge generational divide over the war.

Mary Dixon: Professor Sonin as I understand it a year ago while you were in Moscow you warned that this conflict would be the end of Russia. How does that warnings hold up a year later?

Konstantin Sonin: I think that Ukrainian troubles, which are immensely larger than the Russians, they will be over in a year or two. And the Russian travels are only beginning. I think that Russia will be defeated in this war. And then there will be basically a collapse of the Putin regime and this will be a good thing, but it will be also immensely costly. So there will be a period of lawlessness similar to the '90s. Then there will be painful reforms and this will take years or decades. And this is unfortunately, very costly.

Mary Dixon: Konstantin Sonin in is the John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. Professor Sonin, thanks for your time today. 

Konstantin Sonin: Thank you. 

Mary Dixon: This is WBEZ.

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